Financial Uncertainty in Europe Amidst Policy Debate

From left, Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund chief; Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank; and President Alpha Conde of Guinea at the World Bank last week. Credit J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press

There is a lively debate going on in global financial institutions, and the question seems to be “How much is too much?” Top economists at the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the World Bank are debating about recent economic policy and its effects on global financial markets.

The primary concern is that loose financial policy is once again contributing to over-excited financial markets, leading to another asset bubble. National debt loads are increasing significantly and bond markets are quite active, in large part to low interest rates across the board. However, there is some decoupling from financial markets and national economic performance which is quite worrisome. The strength of a national bond does not seem to reflect the economic health of the country, which could lead to poor national investment and a banking crisis.

There is legitimate concern that raising rates would trigger another recession, and so there is reluctance to pull on that particular lever. There’s not much to be done about that, though, because interest rates must rise at some point. As the CEO of Morgan Stanley put it: “Rates are going up because the U.S. economy is doing better – and that is a good thing.”

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