The article “We don’t, and can’t, know how much it will cost to tackle climate change” is lengthy but quite worth the read. At the heart of the matter is that economic models are pretty good for short-term forecasts for awful for long-term forecasts, so we should base our response on the scientific facts on the ground.

I agree! I agree that long-term economic forecasts are useless, especially over such long time frames. I also agree that decisions should be made on the sound science being done now that indicates incredible damage is being done to the ecosystems we depend on for our way of life.

Unfortunately, that’s not how things work. People make decisions based on events and situations that immediately impact their livelihood and lifestyle. To wit, there’s been a massive dying in the world’s animal population, so much so that it’s being called the 6th Extinction. Entire ecosystems are vanishing, and with them a myriad of discoveries that could be applied towards medicine and technology. We have not noticed this because of several factors.

1) Humans have been moving in ever greater numbers towards urban areas. As of 2014, fully 54 of people live in urban areas. This requires massive amounts of construction and a concentration of people such that a disconnect from the natural world is practically inevitable.

2) The amount of people required to procure food for the rest of us is incredible small. Only 2% of the American population is directly involved in agriculture.

What does this mean? It means that it is difficult for the average person to understand, in a very real and tangible sense, the extent of the damage being done to the ecosystems they unknowingly depend on. Farmers struggle with drought-like conditions, and fishermen have to go farther ashore for smaller catches with weaker fish. The average person, however, sees only a nominal increase in price in the aisles of their local supermarket.

And so, there has been limited public reaction to climate change because it is so far a largely abstract, largely imperceptible phenomenon in people’s lives. When it is obvious to all, it’ll be far too late to do anything about it.

This is why I disagree with the author of this piece. Should we make our decisions on sound scientific research and economic arguments based on weak models? Absolutely. But if we want actual decisions to be made, we’ll need to win hearts, not minds.